Prime Minister John Howard entered the US political fray today by criticising the political policies of US presidential hopeful Barack Obama.  It’s the first time the PM so decidedly linked his political future to President Bush, versus the US as a strategic alliance partner.  It’s a clumsy move by a political mastermind and one that reinforces the challenges this year poses for one of Australia’s longest serving Prime Ministers. 

Australia’s under a Westminster system of government, so the PM is never elected by the public.  The party with the greatest representation selects a leader to represent it - just as in the UK.  So when leaders tank in the public polls it’s okay to make a switch at the top without an election.  Political commentators have noted that if George Bush served in a Westminster system he would have been replaced by now, given his historic low approval ratings.

This is a year to watch US-Australia relations.  Australia must have a federal election before the end of year - the sitting coalition led by the Liberal Party are expected to call one in October or no later than November.  The APEC Summit will be held in Sydney in September.  Some say John Howard may call an election in August to avoid being seen too close to Bush at the APEC meeting.  (Bush’s approval rating is even lower in Australia than in the USA.)

So why the attack?  What Howard said on Channel Nine’s Sunday program was this:  “If I was running al-Qaeda in Iraq, I would put a circle around March 2008 and pray, as many times as possible, for a victory not only for Obama, but also for the Democrats.”

Perhaps it was a way to underline continuing Australian government support for the war in Iraq.  Perhaps it was meant to undermine Democrats in the USA.  More likely it was meant to demonstrate that the sitting Liberal Party supported US-Australian unity and a continued show of force in Iraq.  And the opposition Labor Party was more likely to call for a withdrawal from Iraq much like the US Democrats have been proposing.

Two countries, two elections and one central issue.  It is definitely a year to watch US-Australia relations (and elections).