At this morning’s session the Q&A session lasted longer than my laptop battery. U of M’s Lieberthal was asked, “If you were in China at a conference, what advice would you give them about USA?”
He says the primary view is that the USA’s policies all aim to help China fail. Such as the policies towards Taiwan - the belief is to keep China distracted so it will invest in defence and then not have the money to develop the economy. The USA also is contributing to the economies and military strength of democracies encircling China (Taiwan, Philippines, Australia).
If Lieberthal could give China advice, it would be two-fold:
- Accelerate the civil society of China, such as the liberalisation of religion (which Lieberthal says is a stabilising force and not a destructive force).
- The current attempt is to modernise under an autocracy - that cannot and will not work. China uses examples of Taiwan and Korea as former dictatorships that made the transition. These were not made under high economic growth along with high information flows.
The Olympics pose one of the greatest communications challenges - this is “The Coming Out Party for China.” The problem is that China views 2008 as the biggest event and a lot of “face” is involved. Any demonstrations by NGOs will potentially damage the “face” of China.
“I am glad I’m not GE,” says Lieberthal. It will be almost impossible for GE to balance the issues of civil society and human rights in the USA - without ruining relations with China. China is seeking all kinds of advice but are likely to over-react.
Also - China has less than 1/2 of per capita minerals and resources needed - hence the strong growth of mining in Australia and the continued investment in Africa.
