Beijing Olympics & USA Presidential Election

Once in a while you get to attend a fantastic presentation. Last Thursday I listened to John Micklethwait, Editor-in-Chief, The Economist. This news weekly is by far the best news magazine in the world. Amazingly they sell 180,000 copies in their home country the UK while total global sales exceed 1.3 million copies every week. The event was sponsored by Sydney Ideas at the University of Sydney.

Micklethwait makes “Big Picture” look small. He was singularly capable of encapsulating global issues and concerns in a broad perspective. Rarely do pundits back away from the headlines to achive such clarity.

There are dozens of themes and issues he explored. I’ll hone in on one - the upcoming Beijing Olympics and the USA Presidential Elections.

Make no error - China is poised to win a record number of Olympic gold medals. And they will run a flawless games with military precision (oops - did I say military?).

The United States hates coming in second in an Olympics. And if the games are truly “crisp” and run in military fashion, it will exacerbate anti-China sentiment.

Did you know the USA was in recession? Housing prices are expected to fall a further 20% by some estimates. And Iraq will still be dragging on (Congress approved funding last week).

So a matter of weeks before the USA election there’s the populace - bitter over second place, juggling home finances, worried about the nation’s future. This will all play into an election focused on nationalism, security and trade restrictions. And just as the USA economy is being kept alive by trade, there are no new free trade deals going through Congress.

According to Micklethwait, if you want to predict the outcome of the USA elections in November keep an eye on the medals tally in Beijing in August. If the USA is routed then a democrat will get in with a license to close the country down.

And if you ever get the chance in this life to hear Micklethwait speak then take it - he’s fantastic!

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