Winter is a tough time to attract tourists to Australia. We’re in the depths of bitter cold. Why today the high is only 17 degrees celsius. For Americans, that’s a mind-numbing 63 degrees fahrenheit. Clearly something needed to be done.
Attracting winter time tourists is an art in itself. Sydney doens’t reach the cold depths that would allow an ice hotel - as in Scandinavia. Instead we’ve taken the best looking city - and made it prettier.
Tuesday night was the launch of “Vivid” - a light display across Sydney linked to a series of special events. I was fortunate enough to be taking a client to dinner on launch night at Circular Quay. We saw the display of light boxes in front of Custom House - then saw the pink paisley light show on the sails of Opera House.
“Could I try the heart?” asked Canada’s Governor General, Michaelle Jean as she leaned over a dead seal. She was showing her support for the Inuit tradition of seal hunting in the face of an EU ban on seal products. While Inuit cull small numbers of seal using traditional methods, EU members object to the larger-scale killing by commercial hunters of thousands of seal pups.
So after eating some raw seal meat the Governor General tucked into a bite of raw heart. Her verdict? It tastes “like sushi.” She encouraged all Canadians to sample raw seal.
(Side question: Is this now a national duty or merely an invitation? Are Canadians obliged to eat raw seal much like Japanese school children being served whale meat in school canteens?)
During the peak of “Mad Cow” disease (bovine spongiform encephalopathy) brave British politicans were photographed…enjoying a barbequed steak! Nothing could hold these brave men back as they tucked into a prized British export. (”If it’s safe enough for me…”) Eventually England killed 4.4 million head of cattle.
Now Swine Flu is in the headlines. The misnomer is leading to bans on the export of pork. And while world health authorities have changed the name to “H1N1 Virus” it lacks the same pizzaz as “Swine Flu” especially to the readers of The Daily Telegraph.
Today’s cover features “the first family of swine flu” - now under quarantine to stop the spread of the disease (pictured below: John and Fiona Darcy with sons Jarryd and Nicholas - source: The Daily Telepgraph).
My question: Will they put some pork on their fork? Should Kevin Rudd stop by with a take-away serving of Pork Lo Mein?
Companies are shedding jobs quicker than kilos on “The Biggest Loser“. Former fatties are now “right sized” and “down sized” and better able to handle the economy. Meanwhile the “right sized” are filling unemployment lines and leading to record high unemployment in most OECD nations. (Australia, for some odd reason, is defying the trend and last month announced a decline in unemployment - Aussie! Aussie! Aussie! Oy! Oy! Oy!)
In the USA alone, each month a half million jobs are lost, according to The Guardian:
“The unemployment rate in the United States has hit a 26-year high after another half a million jobs were lost last month.
“The labor department said the jobless rate jumped to 8.9% in April from 8.5% the previous month, marking the highest level since September 1983. US employers cut 539,000 jobs in April, the smallest number since October.”
To date the Global Financial Crisis emanated from falling residential housing prices leading to a drop in consumer confidence, leading to less spending, leading to banks writing off loans…leading to today’s catastrophic mess.
But the bad news it’s only going to get worse.
The employers that are now thinner, leaner and meaner are locked into long term rental agreements for commercial property. This means the major cities will soon have a glut on their hands. And when owners find it impossible to fil buildings - at the right price - they’ll start defaulting on commercial mortgages. Prices for commercial property are bound to fall due to a steep fall in demand. Yet due to the long-term nature of most commercial rental agreements, we’re unlikely to see the full effect for another year.
Until then demand for new commercial premises has fallen - so building has stopped.
And did we mention the banks now holding mortgages that may not be repaid? In the USA attention has been focused on the larger banks - Citibank and BankofAmerica come to mind. According to “The Wall Street Journal“ more than US$100 billion is likely to be lost across all banks in commercial property next year:
“Commercial real-estate loans could generate losses of $100 billion by the end of next year at more than 900 small and midsize U.S. banks if the economy’s woes deepen, according to an analysis by The Wall Street Journal.” (see full story on-line)
We’ll need new terms in a post-crisis world. Safe as banks? Nope. Good as bricks and mortar? No longer. Maybe mattress sales are on the upswing - especially as we can’t get coffee in tins any more to bury in the back yard.
Colours can trigger psychological responses. Orange makes us hungry and is therefore used often in restaurants. Pink makes us tranquil. Prisons report great results after putting violent prisoners in cells painted pink.
Today Australia’s Treasurer delivers a mind-blowing budget. Forecasters call for the largest deficit in a generation. While the results are not yet known, Swan was photographed this morning wearing a pale blue tie.
Blue is easy on the eyes. It is uplifting and relaxing at the same time, thinks blue sky. It is often thought of as a cold colour but the tranquillity of pale blue can imbue a sense of space and peace. It is also considered to have depth, stability and professionalism, think of all the blue/navy uniforms you have seen. It is relaxing, has honour and trust but can also be considered passive and cold. Blue is thought to be a natural appetite suppressant.
For those about to experience the rumoured middle class tax cuts my advice is eat up - you’re about to lose your appetite.
National Australia Bank released its monthly index of business confidence. March 2009 saw the second month of increases - albeit from a low level. While optimists are increasing in number, the Bank forecasts further economic deterioration. They foresee unemployment at 7.75% - up significantly from today’s 5.4% figure. (Note NAB forecasts a growth in unemployment when this month unemployment fell unexpectedly from March’s 5.7% figure.)
NAB also sees Reserve Bank rates being slashed in 25 basis point increments until we reach an official interest rate of 2% (now at 3%).
The report highlights include:
Business confidence improves for second month in a row – albeit still at depressed levels.
Business conditions marginally higher but still trending down in all areas – with employment a key area of weakness. Confidence reading now more in line with outcomes, and less driven by fear.
Forward orders also higher but still at recessionary levels. Stocks continue to be run down.
Employment and capacity utilisation fell further. Exports and capex still weak.
Overall Survey still points to falling demand in Q1 – that is, further negative growth.
Global forecasts for 2009 unchanged at -1% and 2.3% in 2010. Near term risks, however, still down.
Australian forecasts also remain unchanged at -1% in 2009 – with key drivers: falling private consumption & investment and weaker exports. GDP in 2010 also unchanged at a touch below 1%.
Unemployment now to rise to 7¾% in 2010. Risks to activity and rates still on the downside.
RBA now in data watching mode but not finished. We still see the bottom for cash rate at 2% in late 2009 - with the RBA to cut by a series of 25 pt moves as growth and unemployment deteriorate.
It may be that the economists at National Australia Bank have been watching their own share portfolios dwindle. On 12 May 2008 shares in NAB closed at $34.38 - by 9 March 2009 they bottomed at $16.03. Last night the shares closed at $22.42 representing a 35% decline year-over-year.
Auto sales have tanked. Chrysler reported a 48% decline in April from the year prior. How do you plan a business around that? (”Let’s think out of the box people - how do we handle selling half the amount next year as we did this year?”)
But look beyond the (lack of) sales and you see which auto brands are hot - on-line. BuzzStudy is tracking the monthly commentary on-line for all the major brands (see the latest story here).
It’s interesting to note the USA firm in strongest financial health is top of the ranks. But where’s Lada?
Was invited today to speak before IABC NSW Chapter on the subject of Barack Obama and Social Media. My basic premise is that social media is cool and needs to be understood - but that’s not the story. The story is that Obama capitalised on using sites for distribution (versus the “build it and they will come” approach to web sites). Second to get involved in social media it’s about permission - and allowing your brand to be streteched (a bit). Finally I said - from the perspective of sociology - new media does not make us social. We are by nature.
Canada is keen to make a good impression at the 2010 Winter Olympic Games in Vancouver. The country has a rich heritage of on-ice manliness - ice hockey (”I went to a fight and an ice hockey game broke out”). Now the move is on to make men’s figure skating more….masculine. (See video here.)
Suggested changes include an end to frilly shirts and sequins, tights and mascara. (Sorry - in mixed pairs skating the women can keep all those.) It’s unclear what changes are being considered. Red plaid flannel? Doc Martin skates?
Any changes would be welcome compared to the extreme styles seen in parody film “Blades of Glory”.
Nielsen Research this week released a report showing 60% of all users abandon Twitter in the first month of use. The pessimist would say that shows the transient nature of the tool. The optimist would say there are millions more staying on-line. The realist - and the business communicator - would say this on-line phenomenon needs to be understood and tapped into - fast!
The best presentation on Twitter is on SlideShare - access it to learn how to use Twitter in your business.
My name is Walter Jennings - I’m an American who migrated to Sydney. Today I lead the Sydney office of Fleishman-Hillard.
I blog on public relations, adjusting to Australia, social media - and more.
Blogging allows so much freedom of expression. I believe good communications has to encompass more than just words. There are so many elements to an experience. That's why I love social media - you can fold in opinions, images, video, friendships, experiences and more.
Fleishman-Hillard delivers successful communications campaigns for its clients. That was true in the 1940s, when the company was founded, and continues today in the complex media landscape you face. Throughout our history, we have focused on making ourselves as valuable to our clients as they are to us.
