Archive for China
June 23, 2008 at 5:37 pm · Filed under America, China, Globalisation
Once in a while you get to attend a fantastic presentation. Last Thursday I listened to John Micklethwait, Editor-in-Chief, The Economist. This news weekly is by far the best news magazine in the world. Amazingly they sell 180,000 copies in their home country the UK while total global sales exceed 1.3 million copies every week. The event was sponsored by Sydney Ideas at the University of Sydney.
Micklethwait makes “Big Picture” look small. He was singularly capable of encapsulating global issues and concerns in a broad perspective. Rarely do pundits back away from the headlines to achive such clarity.
There are dozens of themes and issues he explored. I’ll hone in on one - the upcoming Beijing Olympics and the USA Presidential Elections.
Make no error - China is poised to win a record number of Olympic gold medals. And they will run a flawless games with military precision (oops - did I say military?).
The United States hates coming in second in an Olympics. And if the games are truly “crisp” and run in military fashion, it will exacerbate anti-China sentiment.
Did you know the USA was in recession? Housing prices are expected to fall a further 20% by some estimates. And Iraq will still be dragging on (Congress approved funding last week).
So a matter of weeks before the USA election there’s the populace - bitter over second place, juggling home finances, worried about the nation’s future. This will all play into an election focused on nationalism, security and trade restrictions. And just as the USA economy is being kept alive by trade, there are no new free trade deals going through Congress.
According to Micklethwait, if you want to predict the outcome of the USA elections in November keep an eye on the medals tally in Beijing in August. If the USA is routed then a democrat will get in with a license to close the country down.
And if you ever get the chance in this life to hear Micklethwait speak then take it - he’s fantastic!
May 20, 2008 at 9:08 pm · Filed under China, Media Industry, Globalisation
National Public Radio in the USA had planned for some time to broadcast live from South Wet China. It just so happens that they were in place in Chengdu at the moment last week’s earthquake hit. There is a fascinating series of broadcasts available (see www.NPR.org).
Two disasters in two countries in two weeks. Yet the difference between Burma and China couldn’t be greater. Media access is bringing the China disaster closer to home. It’s galvanising public sympathy - and will influence donor contributions.
Yet the scale of the disaster in Burma dwarfs the toll for the China quake. And as long as the military leadership block access for media, we will never appreciate the scale of the disaster and the impact on local Burmese.
Compare and contrast - and while you naturally focus on China given its open access and daily fodder of news stories and photos, don’t forget the Burmese.
April 28, 2008 at 8:21 pm · Filed under China, Globalisation
With the nightly news broadcasting protests along the route of the Olympic torch, it’s easy to forget the monumental effort being put into this year’s Beijing Games. I was living in Sydney when we pipped China to the post for the 2000 Games - Juan Antonio Samaranch’s announcement made Sydney a three syllable word.
China has waited patiently for these Games - and now is a time to celebrate all the country has achieved. Every host country has issues and the Games can be a chance to deepen the dialogue.
Until then - watch in awe as China prepares for the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games. My son is adopted from China. I can’t wait to show him this clip tonight!
March 25, 2008 at 3:04 am · Filed under Issues Management, China
Last week I wrote about Gloria Jean’s Coffee - and yesterday found a Facebook Group organising a boycott. Consumer companies need to fear public backlash. The goodwill that propels a brand to stardom can be fickle. It turns quickly.
Beijing is in the throes of boycott avoidance. The Tibet uprising couldn’t come at a worse time. Over the coming weeks the Olympic flame will visit most major cities - to provide a searing reminder of the issue of human rights.
I am old enough to remember the 1980 Olympics in Moscow. Then the USSR had invaded Afghanistan and was subjected to a global boycott. Many Eastern European nations retaliated in 1984 by avoiding the Los Angeles games.
Today athletes are under pressure to consider personal boycotts of the games. Nations stand like dominoes ready to topple in succession. Each awaits the other’s move.By the Northern Hemisphere summer we’ll see a succession of boycott calls. And many individuals will heed the call. Soon after pressure will grow for nation states to follow.
Don’t book your hotel rooms in Beijing quite yet. It won’t be a politically correct place to visit this year.
March 17, 2008 at 5:56 pm · Filed under Issues Management, China
In olden days, China only needed to censor the media and expel foreign journalists. This week video footage of uprising in Tibet has been uploaded to YouTube. In Mainland China access to YouTube is down today. For some quirky reason you can’t get your favourite karaoke, pet tricks or scenes of activists being led away in chains (or in a body bag). This is the bleeding edge of citizen journalism.
On 11 April the Newseum opens in Washington DC. This is a museum dedicated to news and journalism, and is likely to honour journalists killed in the line of action. Soon they will have to feature the ordinary citizens who place their life on the line to ensure atrocities are witnessed by all the world.See this clip on YouTube.
And realise this - your ability to watch this means you’re living in a democracy.
February 21, 2008 at 4:21 am · Filed under China, Globalisation
Mike Smith, CEO, ANZ Bank spoke this morning at the China Business Summit hosted by the City of Sydney.
“It’s tough out there, particularly in the financial centres of New York and London.” Sub-prime write-downs now exceed $140 billion (write-downs are bank-speak for losses). This exceeds the GDP of New Zealand. The first bank run in a century occurred in Britain; Northern Rock bank was nationalised this week.
Liquidity is placing pressure on corporate and there is increasing volatility in share markets. “There is no longer a disparity between what is good and what is bad.” Australian banks are being treated with the same discounts as USA and European banks – yet Australians
“Credit worthiness is like oxygen – you don’t notice it when it’s around,” said Warren Buffet. Perhaps he should have said you notice it when it’s not around.
In this environment sovereign funds are welcome relief – and Australia needs to consider carefully policies on these funds.
The Australian economy and banking centre are weathering the current financial storm better than any Western economy. The Asian markets are less dependent on USA so slowing will be modest across the region. Asia is in a much stronger macroeconomic position that in was a decade ago.
The importance of China to Australia’s future…
Today we are at another turning point – by 2015 China will once again be the world’s largest economy. In the 19th century we had the European century. The last was the American century. We are now in the China century. It is vital for Australia to embrace China and recognise our future must be linked to China.
Our future success for the economy and our businesses is liked to China and to Asia.
February 21, 2008 at 4:20 am · Filed under China
In “Conspiracy Theory” Mel Gibson is a crazed homeless man seeking to convince Julia Roberts there is an assassination attempt being plotted. It’s wonderful when the insane engage the sane. You question the separation of insanity and what is normalcy.
Today I sat next to a sane looking businessman here at the China Business Summit. He shared a theory about the future of Australia.
By 2050 Australia will be an outpost in the People’s Republic of China. The 200 million middle class Chinese can’t squeeze into Mainland China so the vast country of Australia seems a perfect outpost. With that longer term view in mind, China is seeding the nation today with some 80,000 students. These pioneers will bridge the cultural and language differences – much like astronauts establish colonies on distant planets in science fiction movies.
But Australia offers more than a great coastal community for over-populated China. The strong natural resource base is mandatory for China’s growth. A pipeline for natural gas is under development. Maybe one day that will offer ways to ship other resources.
We have the only Mandarin speaking Prime Minister in a Western nation. (”I doubt George Bush speaks Mandarin,” said Mike Smith, CEO, ANZ Bank at the China Business Summit. “I question if he even speaks English.”) Was Rudd then sent to study in China much like “The Manchurian Candidate”. Melbourne’s mayor is from China.
So here’s the movie idea (pay attention Universal Studios – you heard it here first): Australia in 2050 with Chinese flags flying and Mandarin-speakers wandering along the beach-front promenade at the Gold Coast. So many things look familiar – it’s good old Sydney beach-side. Yet there’s a strong element of the foreign. Dim Sum and noodle shops have replaced fish and chip shops. A low-flying Qantas plane passes overhead (still with its iconic red tail – but the kangaroo now has a star off its tail). And while rich Chinese eat and shop, second-class citizens originally from Australia serve and clean.
The Gold Coast has become China’s Florida – the beachfront community for rich retirees. Sunscreens had been used to protect the skin – it’s unacceptable for Chinese to have dark skin (that signals a job in the fields – way too plebeian for wealthy). But at this future date silver tennis ball-sized satellites are in stationary orbit above the Gold Coast to deflect the worst of the sun’s rays.
To drive the plot then maybe there’s an insurrection – or just a “Planet of the Apes” style revolutionary who rails against what’s now accepted as normal. Slowly people wake to the change – but isn’t it too late?
Or should I posit – isn’t it too late right now? Isn’t the train hurtling to this destination today? Mandarin is the second most common language in the Sydney basin – after English. Australia’s largest trading partner today is China. Tourism relies on Chinese – today they’re the third highest visitor base.
Come on Universal Studios – this is a great premise!
Speak to my agent…
February 21, 2008 at 4:20 am · Filed under China, Globalisation
China is rich. Not like “new money” flash car rich. China is “kingdom of Saudi Arabia” 1980s petro-dollar rich – times ten.
So why haven’t their Sovereign Wealth Funds bought up more of the economy? Australia’s banks and mining companies have to be cheap. After all, what’s a few billion dollars between friendly countries?
Maybe it’s bad PR. After all we commoners still perceive China as a communist state best known for the Cultural Revolution and Chairman Mao. People say China and we think human rights abuses, Tibet, Tianneman Square and bad-fitting collarless jackets. Who wants to swap the set of crooks for another – better the devil you know, eh?
But have no doubt. In time we’ll see more direct ownership of Australian companies by Chinese firms and funds. Today’s acquisitions are through joint ventures, minority shareholdings or via blandly named funds or holding companies. Yet before that can happen – and be acceptable politically – the country of China does need to better develop its reputation among the mass populace.
Opinion leaders and business professionals are already “on board” with China. Yet that hasn’t driven down to the Late Majority and other large pockets of the population. It also hasn’t reached government - as China and 3Com learned today (see The New York Times).
It will take more than a series of “Survivor China” to gain mass support. But that was a good start!
February 21, 2008 at 4:20 am · Filed under China, Australia
Today in Darling Harbour the City of Sydney hosted an inaugural “China Business Summit,” sponsored by Austrade, ANZ Bank and KPMG. The Economist was the official media partner – I learned about the session as a subscriber.
For an inaugural conference attendance was good – not an overflow but now empty, either (especially when you consider tickets cost $220 each).
The Hon. Ian MacDonald, MLC, Minister for State Development with NSW Government started the main session. His opening keynote speech highlighted the rationale for the links.
Why China? Australia grew up a distant partner to Europe. In the 20th century the allegiances shifted to the USA. Today our largest trading partner is China. And the links are more than purely economic. Chinese New Year in Sydney is the largest celebration of Lunar New Year outside China.
Exports are the primary link. Exports account for 1 in 5 jobs in Australia – in rural Australia that’s 1 in 4 jobs. Today the economic relations with China are $50.5 billion – with NSW claiming $15.4 billion. China is the largest trading partner for Australia and NSW. Its annual growth rate last year was 11.4% and puts it on course to overtake Germany as the third largest economy.
Just 20 years after Sydney was founded the first schooner left laden with seal skins for Canton (today Guangzhou). It returned with tea, china, silk, toys and trinkets. Today aluminium, wool, coal, copper are shipped via that same route. NSW exports the highest amount of coal in the world.
Beyond exports Sydney is now exporting intelligence – PTW Architects designed the Beijing Olympics aquatic centre. Called the “Water Cube” the centre can host 17,000 spectators and uses advanced building technology. Some say it looks like a cube covered in bubble wrap.
Those visiting the Beijing Olympic Games can take advantage of Austrade’s business club – a “matchmaking service” for business professionals taking place in Beijing during the Games.
October 3, 2007 at 6:15 pm · Filed under America, China, Australia
Support for America’s foreign policy reached new lows today, as polls reveal Australians hold the USA in similar regard as China. (See today’s editorial in The Sydney Morning Herald.)
I admire many aspects of China and its rich culture. Foreign policy is not one of the country’s achievements. And as an American by birth, my home country was always respected and admired around the world. Until now.
Thankfully Australians recognise the difference between a country and its temporary Administration. Yet the damage done to the image of the USA will take a decade to repair - or longer.
China rising?
Next entries »
Thanks for visiting!
