Archive for Globalisation

War - Under the Cloak of Olympics

Day Four of the Olympics and newspapers around the world feature athletes and medal tallies on their covers. Dig a little deeper into the journal and you’ll see soldiers and mortalities. Russia is using the cloak of the Olympic Games to conduct war in neighbouring Georgia.

DefeatVictory

I’ve advised clients facing a serious crisis - and I understand the relief of a “busy news day”. That means the day your crisis breaks another, larger event occurs that dominates the airwaves and headlines. Your client’s crisis does get reported - but it is buried towards the back of the paper, or later in the radio broadcast.

It is shocking to see Russia using this same strategy to wage war. Yesterday a colleague skimmed the paper and said, “Is there anything else happening in the world (other than the Olympics)?”

There is a war. And it’s raging under the immense cloak of the Olympics.

Annus Horribilis

Today marks the end of the financial year in Australia. Yes, instead of following a calendar year we close our books and report taxes from 1 July to 30 June. My theory is the summer sun made it too vexxing to consider doing accounts in early January - that’s when every self-respecting Aussie is at the beach or burning meat on the Barbie!

In 1992 when providing a speech to mark the 40th anniversary of her coronation, Queen Elizabeth said it had been an “annus horribilis”. If you can’t decode the meaning of the Latin phrase she said it had been an awful year:

“1992 is not a year on which I shall look back with undiluted pleasure. In the words of one of my more sympathetic correspondents, it has turned out to be an Annus Horribilis.”

The financial markets would tend to agree - today we close the year and it has been really savage. Stock markets are down 20% - officially entering bear territory. Inflation is up. Profits are down. Credit markets are tight.

Perhaps we’ll have a resurgence this year. Probably not. Be prepared for a year of bear. Then next year we can ponder - what’s worse than an “annus horribilis”?

Beijing Olympics & USA Presidential Election

Once in a while you get to attend a fantastic presentation. Last Thursday I listened to John Micklethwait, Editor-in-Chief, The Economist. This news weekly is by far the best news magazine in the world. Amazingly they sell 180,000 copies in their home country the UK while total global sales exceed 1.3 million copies every week. The event was sponsored by Sydney Ideas at the University of Sydney.

Micklethwait makes “Big Picture” look small. He was singularly capable of encapsulating global issues and concerns in a broad perspective. Rarely do pundits back away from the headlines to achive such clarity.

There are dozens of themes and issues he explored. I’ll hone in on one - the upcoming Beijing Olympics and the USA Presidential Elections.

Make no error - China is poised to win a record number of Olympic gold medals. And they will run a flawless games with military precision (oops - did I say military?).

The United States hates coming in second in an Olympics. And if the games are truly “crisp” and run in military fashion, it will exacerbate anti-China sentiment.

Did you know the USA was in recession? Housing prices are expected to fall a further 20% by some estimates. And Iraq will still be dragging on (Congress approved funding last week).

So a matter of weeks before the USA election there’s the populace - bitter over second place, juggling home finances, worried about the nation’s future. This will all play into an election focused on nationalism, security and trade restrictions. And just as the USA economy is being kept alive by trade, there are no new free trade deals going through Congress.

According to Micklethwait, if you want to predict the outcome of the USA elections in November keep an eye on the medals tally in Beijing in August. If the USA is routed then a democrat will get in with a license to close the country down.

And if you ever get the chance in this life to hear Micklethwait speak then take it - he’s fantastic!

Media at the Epicentre

National Public Radio in the USA had planned for some time to broadcast live from South Wet China. It just so happens that they were in place in Chengdu at the moment last week’s earthquake hit.  There is a fascinating series of broadcasts available (see www.NPR.org). 

Two disasters in two countries in two weeks. Yet the difference between Burma and China couldn’t be greater. Media access is bringing the China disaster closer to home. It’s galvanising public sympathy - and will influence donor contributions.

Yet the scale of the disaster in Burma dwarfs the toll for the China quake. And as long as the military leadership block access for media, we will never appreciate the scale of the disaster and the impact on local Burmese.

Compare and contrast - and while you naturally focus on China given its open access and daily fodder of news stories and photos, don’t forget the Burmese.

Catch Olympic Fever!

With the nightly news broadcasting protests along the route of the Olympic torch, it’s easy to forget the monumental effort being put into this year’s Beijing Games. I was living in Sydney when we pipped China to the post for the 2000 Games - Juan Antonio Samaranch’s announcement made Sydney a three syllable word.

China has waited patiently for these Games - and now is a time to celebrate all the country has achieved. Every host country has issues and the Games can be a chance to deepen the dialogue.

Until then - watch in awe as China prepares for the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games. My son is adopted from China. I can’t wait to show him this clip tonight!

Views on Australia - in Israel

A friend in Sydney writes regularly for “The Globes”, a financial magazine in Israel. Today she asked a series of questions for an article she’s submitting on Australia and Israel. I will have to rely on the translated version as it’ll be published in Hebrew. Here are her questions and my responses:

1.      What’s the thing that upsets you most about Australia? (can be anything!)

Until recently it was the “matchy-matchy” policies that mimicked America. Australia has always been an economically conservative yet socially liberal country. Former Prime Minister John Howard tried to mimic the USA and introduced a wide range of conservative social policies. It was like wearing someone else’s skin!

2.      What would you like to change if you had the chance?

My partner of 17 years and I had the good fortune to adopt a baby when we lived in America. Today Australia prevents same sex couples from adopting. There are so many needy children in the world – why can’t governments make it easier for giving couples to make more room in their home? It makes me so angry and sad.

3.      If not Australia, in which country would you like to live and why?

I have this vision of retiring in the South of France and writing a book! I could never live in America again (where I’m originally from). Yet I don’t think I’d survive in the old culture of Europe. I love the climate of the Middle East – could a Unitarian Universalist survive in Israel?

4.      What’s your impression of Israel (if you haven’t been - then from what you know/hear)

We’ve never been to Israel – but here it goes! My impression is it’s a tough yet warm country filled with pragmatists who realise how lucky they are to have their own space in the world – and will fight to defend it. It is a country that deserves peace yet is in a quagmire. Bad neighbours mean peace may always be an illusion! That makes Israel edgy, vibrant, contemporary and full of people wanting to “seize the day”. Who knows what tomorrow may bring?

5.      If you didn’t live in OZ, what would you miss about it the most?

I love the climate and the laid-back attitudes. People in Australia are just as nosey as anywhere else in the world but they won’t pry into your private life. There’s a great respect for personal boundaries. I also love the sense of space and lack of crowds. This country is the physical size of the United States yet has only 10% of the population! So no strip malls, crowded highways, bland suburbs (or at least not as many!).

6.      How do you celebrate Australia Day?

Australia Day is a summer holiday so it’s less about patriotism and more about enjoying all that is good about Australia. You must be outdoors and with friends. It usually involves a barbecue or a day at the beach. Australia Day means sand between the toes, fireworks, friends and a lot of sunshine. What else do you need in late January?

Live Blog – China Business Summit: ANZ Bank’s CEO

Mike Smith, CEO, ANZ Bank spoke this morning at the China Business Summit hosted by the City of Sydney.

“It’s tough out there, particularly in the financial centres of New York and London.” Sub-prime write-downs now exceed $140 billion (write-downs are bank-speak for losses). This exceeds the GDP of New Zealand. The first bank run in a century occurred in Britain; Northern Rock bank was nationalised this week.

Liquidity is placing pressure on corporate and there is increasing volatility in share markets. “There is no longer a disparity between what is good and what is bad.” Australian banks are being treated with the same discounts as USA and European banks – yet Australians

“Credit worthiness is like oxygen – you don’t notice it when it’s around,” said Warren Buffet. Perhaps he should have said you notice it when it’s not around.

In this environment sovereign funds are welcome relief – and Australia needs to consider carefully policies on these funds.

The Australian economy and banking centre are weathering the current financial storm better than any Western economy. The Asian markets are less dependent on USA so slowing will be modest across the region. Asia is in a much stronger macroeconomic position that in was a decade ago.

The importance of China to Australia’s future…

Today we are at another turning point – by 2015 China will once again be the world’s largest economy. In the 19th century we had the European century. The last was the American century. We are now in the China century. It is vital for Australia to embrace China and recognise our future must be linked to China.

Our future success for the economy and our businesses is liked to China and to Asia.

Live Blog: Making Direct Chinese Investment Politically Acceptable

China is rich. Not like “new money” flash car rich. China is “kingdom of Saudi Arabia” 1980s petro-dollar rich – times ten.

So why haven’t their Sovereign Wealth Funds bought up more of the economy? Australia’s banks and mining companies have to be cheap. After all, what’s a few billion dollars between friendly countries?

Maybe it’s bad PR. After all we commoners still perceive China as a communist state best known for the Cultural Revolution and Chairman Mao. People say China and we think human rights abuses, Tibet, Tianneman Square and bad-fitting collarless jackets. Who wants to swap the set of crooks for another – better the devil you know, eh?

But have no doubt. In time we’ll see more direct ownership of Australian companies by Chinese firms and funds. Today’s acquisitions are through joint ventures, minority shareholdings or via blandly named funds or holding companies. Yet before that can happen – and be acceptable politically – the country of China does need to better develop its reputation among the mass populace.

 Opinion leaders and business professionals are already “on board” with China. Yet that hasn’t driven down to the Late Majority and other large pockets of the population. It also hasn’t reached government - as China and 3Com learned today (see The New York Times).

It will take more than a series of “Survivor China” to gain mass support. But that was a good start!

PR War: Whales versus Kangaroos

“Ahoy Thar Matey” Lovable pirates - and Captain Jack Sparrow is strangely absent…Australian media has been dominated by the capture of two anti-whaling activists by Japanese whalers last week. The pair had boarded the ship to deliver a letter demanding Japan cease all whaling. They weren’t allowed to leave and an international media war ensued.

Headlines across Australia feature the illegal detention - with images of captives in pain as they’re man-handled on board the whaling ship. In Japan the furore centres on Australia’s two-sided arguments: Don’t kill whales, yet local government web sites outline how to humanely kill baby kangaroos should their mothers be killed in a road accident.

Dead whales versus dead kangaroos - this is what sells newspapers.

From a public relations viewpoint, you have to hand it to Sea Shepherd. This anti-whaling protest boat has satellite phones, video editing suites, a daily blog and an on-board crew from Discovery Channel filming a documentary. This team controls the imagery and messages used int he public debate because the flotilla is somwhere in the oceas between Australia, Africa and Antarctica. With their non-stop flow of information and imagery the Sea Shepherd has dominated the public relations war.

This is a communications program worth watching to learn ways of influencing public perception, government policy and international relations all through expert media management.

Track the action at: http://www.seashepherd.org/

Bollywood and Cricket: A Smart Combination?

NSW Tourism is filming a Bollywood film entitled, “Victory.” This “Bend if Like Beckham” sports story focuses on the trials and tribulations of the Commonwealth’s favourite sport - cricket. Shot at favoured locales across Sydney the film may be seen by as many as 1 billion people in India. 

It couldn’t happen at a worst time.

Yesterday India’s cricket board called off the current test tour of Australia. Players who had boarded a bus for a match in Canberra disembarked after an hour and returned to the Radisson hotel - indefinitely.

At question is a multi-game suspension for one of India’s top players for a racial slur. But dig not much deeper and a wellspring of discontent springs forward - against Australia.

Captain Ricky Ponting is in the headlines with major papers across the nation calling for his dismissal. He led Cricket Australia to victory as team captain. But he did so in ways labeled disgraceful and unsportsmanlike. The letters to the editor are awash with cricket fans protesting against our own team. The Sydney Morning Herald runs an editorial with a superbly written opening line:

Australia’s cricketers and their managers have managed to pluck a moral disaster out of their victory in the Sydney Test against India. (Click to read more.)

So. Cricket India is holed up at the Radisson. Cricket Australia is under fire for poor sportsmanship. In India an effigy of the Second Test umpire was burned in the street. 

Sounds like a terrible time to undertake a Bollywood Film promoting Australia using cricket as a theme.  But then again “The Producers” had us all humming along to “Springtime for Hitler and Germany.” Perhaps they just need a really memorable show tune for “Victory.” Any suggestions for the song title?

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