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Good news, Bad news: Economic growth & inflation

I’ve crowed repeatedly about Australia’s ability to dodge the global financial crisis (see Like Keanu, Australia Dodges Recession). Seems my roosters are coming home to roost.

Yesterday the S&P/ASX 200 index dropped. Why, with all this good news, would the stock market drop? Seems inflation is now on the rise – up to an annual rate of 3.4%. In its simplest terms, inflation measures the cost of goods and services. Notice your electric bill has gone up? What about water? Utilities are components of the inflation measurement. And while plasma televisions may have dropped overall it costs more and more to live in Australia. There are more of us willing to pay more for goods and services – so we’re in effect bidding up the prices. “Do I have $5.50 for this bunch of bananas?”

Next week The Reserve Bank meets, and as the inflation rate is above its guidelines we can expect the fourth rate hike in a year.

That’s right – it’s getting more expensive to live here so they’ll raise mortgage rates. That’ll stop you from bidding up those bananas!

Watching the Election in a State We Can’t Spell

Australian media is full of stories on the special election underway now in New England. With the death of Senator Ted Kennedy his vacant seat is subject to a hotly-contested special election. The election also falls neatly on the first anniversary of Obama’s inauguration.

Yet this election is more than a seat-filling exercise. This has become a barometer on the first year of a change president. The area being contested has always been considered the left-leaning centre for America. Some pundits question – is it a leftist state, or was that defined by Kennedy – who was widely supported, election after election?

Going to the polls the Republican (or right-leaning) candidate has the edge. The Democratic candidate is said to have run a lack-lustre campaign. (Note to Washington: Help her, guys!)

So all the way down in Australia we’re keenly watching the election in Massachusseettss
Massachewsits
Massachoosetts Massachusetts. Perhaps after we’ll party in Woolloomooloo!

Australian Dollar: From Pacific Peso to Parity

“You’ve come a long way, baby” was the tag line for Virginia Slim cigarettes, back in the days when tobacco companies spent big on full page magazine ads. (Apparently gaining the right to lung cancer and emphysema was seen as progress.) Yet today it’s the rallying cry for the continued appreciation of the Australian dollar. With the Reserve Bank signalling a rate rise in the near term, foreign exchange traders are piling into the Australian dollar. Combine that with a decline in the US dollar and the little Aussie battler is rising and rising. In an interview printed yesterday, Icap senior economist Adam Carr said:

“I think we will get above US90c when the RBA starts to tighten, and depending on the pace of that, we could be at parity next year.”

Parity means one Australian dollar has the same value as one US dollar.

This is a long way away from the days the Australian dollar bought US$0.60. Then our currency was called the “Pacific Peso”. That’s making a comparison between the purchasing power of the US dollar in Mexico with the equivalent power in Australia. Needless to say we had a lot of American tourists here. Sadly we were unable to provide souvenir sombreros or high quality agave tequila. Do an Akubra and Bundy count?

Today further signs of life emerge. Business confidence is at a six year high. Stocks rallied. Gold closed above US$1,000. The Australian Business section has a banner headline nearing screaming confidence:

It’s all up: stocks, gold, dollar

But reminders of past panics are never far behind. Just under the banner headline The Australian Business features a photo of a middle-aged man in T-shirt, jeans and tractor cap. One year later – it’s Dick Fuld, former CEO of Lehman Brothers. And while expects the 15 September anniversary to put him back in the headlines, I believe attention needs to turn to the real villain. US Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. made the decision to let Lehman Brothers go under. In retrospect it was a mistake of global proportions. We’re all familiar with the aftermath:

Last year, as the credit crisis deepened, the US government and the Federal Reserve arranged life-saving mergers for investment banks Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch, propped up the giant insurer American International Group and bailed out Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.

But on September 15, they let the 158-year-old Lehman die in what was then the biggest bankruptcy in the US history.

The collapse drained what little confidence was left in global financial markets, triggering a meltdown.

Stocks plunged, credit markets froze and governments worldwide were forced into a massive round of bailouts and backstops for companies, particularly banks. (Source: The Australian)

Still, Paulson didn’t receive salary and entitlements exceeding US$500 million. Even if he did or did not get punched in the face at the Lehman Fitness Centre, we still need a scapegoat. His employees all “signed” a portrait of him and added comments that are far from kind

Happy Anniversary Dick Fuld – we’ll buy your gift with Australian dollars are we’re now getting more back for our buck.

Social Media: Take friends, family, work, strangers and blend

One day we’ll look back to these as the salad days of social media - the time of simple mistakes and youthful innocence.

Salad Days (n): A time of youth, innocence, and inexperience: “my salad days,/When I was green in judgment, cold in blood” (Shakespeare).

We’re taking our best friends and mixing them with social acquaintances. On Facebook I blend people who went to university with me and my close family members. On LinkedIn I have colleagues, clients, direct reports, bosses and business friends all sitting alongside each other.

Yet at times we forget who is in the salad.

Fired on Facebook

I like the youth and bravado displayed in the first post. Who hasn’t complained about their boss? It’s one of our rights! Yet most of us are smart enough to wait until he or she is out of the room.

But once your boss is a friend on Facebook, there is no “out of the room”.

I also like the panache displayed by the man ”formerly known as boss”. He doesn’t mince words (nor did he mince around the office, apparently).

It takes a certain energy, confidence and commitment to live your life on-line. I have a company evaluating me for some work. I’ve only provided my profile on Linked In, my blog and my Tweets - along with the odd email or two.

Recommendation #1? Live as if you’re always on display…

Buy Windex

Photojournalism: Hillary as Tina Turner

And for my encore…

The Democrats in Pennsylvania - No Surrender

The latest issue of “The Economist” has a stunning photo and headline combination (see above). It says in a few words and with a dramatic photograph what the rest of the article confirms.

In public relations, we work with clients to develop strong, focused messages and train managers how to handle media interviews. All this can be undone - or reinforced - by the choice of headline (by the subeditor) and the photograph (photo editor).

If yours is a company in trouble there will no doubt be an unflattering photo. If you’re on the top of your game a dominant, strong image will be used. And if you’re a “take no prisoners” Democratic contender for the White House, chances are you’ll be portrayed like Tina Turner in concert.

And now for my encore…

Democrat Implosion

Clinton’s win in Pennsylvania yesterday means she lives to fight another day. Yet it also means that prior to the Democratic National Convention in Denver this August the party will have no clear winner. And whoever finally succeeds will take over a bifurcated party. Barrack’s people will stay away from the polls in November if Hillary wins - and Hillary’s power base may boycott Barrack.

This was to be the election the Democrats couldn’t lose. America is angry over the Iraq war, recession, the politics of divisiveness. Last month 81% of American said they didn’t like the direction the country was headed in. But the pre-selection process for a democratic candidate has become so rough and bruising November may turn into a “gimme” for the Republicans.

It’s odd to watch the USA election from afar. Australian media cover it daily - Hillary is the lead story in today’s “The Australian”. (In typical Hillary coverage there’s a black lining - her win is overshadowed by her dire financial position.) And in the background McCain is slowly, slowly building support.

We’re still six and a half months from the general election. Can the bruises heal in time?

PS: To all you digital artists - can someone take the “Surrender Dorothy” sky-writing clip from ‘The Wizard of Oz’ and change the name Dorothy to Hillary?

“And if I see you in public, I’ll have to snub you.”

Australia is embroiled in “Wavegate”.

At the weekend NATO conference in Europe Prime Minister Kevin Rudd waved across the room to US President George Bush. The style of the greeting (was that a wave or a salute?) and the recipient (of all the presidents in the room it had to be George Bush) have been causing no end of controversy.

Seems the quasi-salute was too much for many. Barking from the sidelines (and the dog house - who can survive approval ratings of 8%?) was Opposition leader Brendon Nelson.  ”I think it’s conduct unbecoming of an Australian prime minister,” the Opposition Leader said (see more in The Australian).

This cooked-up controversy shows the parochial attitude of Australian media - especially when it comes to the USA. Rudd met Bush a week earlier. He walked into a crowded room and gave a familiar face a wave. That’s all.

It’s sad what fills media space!

It’s Okay to Discriminate: He’s Only American

A client of mine talked about me in their executive committee meeting this week. I’m to present results of an internal communications audit to all staff - and highlight next steps. One of the executives paused and asked - “Don’t you think he’s too American?”

My client asked what they meant. Do you think he’s too loud? Too forward? “Well - yes,” came the reply. Thankfully my client remarked that staff had all responded favourably to my energetic style. The issues was resolved.

But it made me think. What other nationalities could you equally single out?

“Don’t ask her to present - she’s so Chinese!” I don’t think so!

Or how about - “Will people understand him? He is very Greek.” Sounds like a lawsuit, doesn’t it?

“Staff won’t respond favourably to him because he’s so Italian (or Lebanese or Vietnamese or Thai).”

I have to say you’re right to cringe at all these phrases.

Yet in Australia it’s okay to pick on the Americans. And the British. Equally, an Aussie in London gets complimented by being told, “You’re not very Australian.” Does that mean the hat with corks is missing and there are no Vegemite stains on their tie?

I know the comment was not meant to discriminate or exclude or whatever. But in a backwards way it still stings.

I took up citizenship in 1994 and choose to live in Australia. That’s a forever decision (or so it feels right now). But to many I’ll always be American. And while I retain my USA citizenship I live in Sydney, travel on my Aussie passport and feed my son Vegemite for breakfast.

So now I know what Laotians, Indonesians, Mongolians, Chileans and all others feel like when they’re in Australia.

At least as an American you get it to your face. 

Frozen New York

If you haven’t heard all the buzz about this - then watch. If you’ve seen it then it’s worth a second go. 

Writing for the Wrong Audiences!

You have to laugh…

I’ve been keeping an august tome on-line trying to address issues like politics, public relations, government accountability and the likes. And every week about 5,000 people check in (believe it or not).

So imagine my surprise when I write about the Kylie Minogue special on Channel Seven the other night - and instantly readership doubles!

Am I to delve into current affairs or try and keep to the high road?

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